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The logistics industry often serves as an early warning system for shifts in the broader economy. When supply chains slow down—through port congestion, inventory shortages, or transportation delays—it can signal economic stress before it shows up in traditional metrics. This was evident at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, when logistical disruptions were among the first signs of trouble.

The reverse is also true: as the economy recovers, logistics activity tends to rebound first, reflecting renewed demand and movement of goods.

To monitor these trends, researchers from top logistics and supply chain programs conduct a long-term survey known as the Logistics Managers’ Index© (LMI). First launched in 2016 and refined in 2019, the LMI tracks eight key components of the logistics sector:

• Inventory levels and costs
• Warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices
• Transportation capacity, utilization, and prices

Each component is scored using a diffusion index, where:

• A reading above 50 indicates expansion
• A reading below 50 signals contraction

The LMI is produced by researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, ÌÇÐÄVlog, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in partnership with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).

The goal of this ongoing research is to identify long-term trends and developments in logistics, generating insights that are relevant not only to industry professionals but also to economists, policymakers, and journalists tracking the pulse of the U.S. economy.

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Logistics Insights

Inside the Logistics Data Charts

The Logistics Data page offers a dynamic, data-rich view of the U.S. supply chain, helping users track trends and anticipate economic shifts. At its core is the monthly Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) Score, which reflects real-time conditions across inventory, warehousing, and transportation. But the page goes far beyond a single number.

Each month, the dashboard presents a series of interactive charts that visualize:

Current LMI scores, alongside data from previous months to highlight short-term trends

Forward-looking predictions from logistics professionals about expected conditions in the next 12 months

Historical LMI trajectories spanning the past two to three years, revealing long-term patterns and cycles

Comparative scores between upstream (e.g., manufacturers, suppliers) and downstream (e.g., retailers, distributors) firms

Firm size breakdowns, showing how large and small businesses experience logistics pressures differently

This layered analysis provides a nuanced understanding of how different segments of the supply chain respond to economic forces.

The following excerpts are copyrighted and owned by the Logistics Manager’s Index^© and are reproduced here with permission.

Analysis: Current Scores vs. Future Predictions

The September Logistics Manager’s Index reads in at 57.4, down (-1.9) from August’s reading of 59.3. This is the lowest reading for the overall index since March. The slowdown in logistics expansion is due to a declining rate of growth across the majority of our sub-metrics, with Transportation Utilization down (-4.7) to 50.0 which indicates no movement.The rate of expansion was more pronounced later in September, reading in at 60.5 during the second half of September – which was up significantly from the reading of 55.9 early in the month. The drop can be largely attributed to slowdowns in the expansion of supply chain costs. Taken together, the three cost/price metrics were down 11.9 points in September, reading in at 195.66. This is the slowest rate of cost expansion since March and the second lowest in 2025.Respondents were asked to predict movement in the overall LMI and individual metrics 12 months from now. Respondent predictions for the overall index are 59.6, down (-4.3) from August’s more optimistic prediction of 63.9. This would represent a slightly slower rate of growth than the all-time average of 61.5. This is driven by notably softer predictions for supply chain costs, with lower future predictions for Inventory Costs (-9.6 to 69.9), Warehousing Prices (-7.4 to 67.9), and Transportation Prices (-5.2 to 66.7).

Analysis: LMI Historical Trends

The current LMI of 57.4 is slightly below the recent three-month average of 58.7 and the all-time average of 61.5. Historically, the index has ranged from a low of 45.4 to a high of 76.2, with a standard deviation of 7.69, indicating moderate variability over time.